TO BREAK OR NOT TO BREAK, THAT IS THE QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THESE SEALED TREASURES
By Joe Orlando
The term “unopened” refers to a collectible state that is undisturbed at its core, and it comes in many forms. There are packs, boxes and cases. There is wax, cello, vending, racks, foil and more. What lies inside is unknown, but that is part of the allure. Unopened is a symbol of hope; it is buried treasure of the cardboard kind. More than any other collectible type, it is time in a bottle with a hint of mystery.
Like most collectors, I opened packs, boxes and even cases in my youth, which led to lots of card trading with friends. While I share that experience with many, I didn’t get serious about unopened until much later in life when I started seeking nostalgia in the form my inner child could immediately recognize. Those were the boxes I vividly remember sitting on the store shelves and the packs I opened repeatedly. I even risked cracking my molars on those pink bricks they called “gum” on the inside.
Did Topps cause an eruption in the dentistry profession without knowing it?
Perhaps, but kids like me loved every chew, chomp and crunch the packs offered. The smell, taste and feel of the experience stays with you, as does the feeling you had when you pulled something special. There’s nothing quite like unopened. Part of the driving force behind the appeal is also why some collectors have been reluctant to take the plunge. In the words of Forrest Gump, “You never know what you’re gonna get.”
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The anticipation created by the unknown has helped propel interest in box “breaking” and pack “ripping.” While the popularity of this practice might fluctuate, it is doubtful that collector interest will ever dissipate significantly over time. Years ago, when social media was becoming a serious part of our culture, an expert in the field shared some of the early trends with me and my colleagues. At that time, what was one of the most popular types of videos on YouTube? Children opening presents. That’s right. Kids wanted to watch other kids open presents. The point here is that the attraction to the element of surprise is part of our DNA.
It sounds bizarre on some level, but there is something about not knowing what lies inside and the thrill of victory that can produce unforgettable moments. In August 2018, a Mickey Mantle card was pulled from a 1955 Bowman cello live at the National Sports Collectors Convention (NSCC) in Cleveland. The excitement generated from that reveal had collectors worldwide asking, “Why couldn’t that have been me?” The card was submitted to Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA) for grading shortly after that onstage rip and received a Mint 9. It was the stuff collector dreams are made of.
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I have also witnessed the agony of defeat. At the 2007 NSCC, also in Cleveland, a longtime collector opened a pack of 1952 Topps baseball cards in front of a small crowd at the show. Keep in mind that in today’s dollars, this was a pack worth north of $75,000 in unopened form. After the cards were revealed and sent away for grading, the pack produced one PSA NM-MT 8 Wayne Terwilliger, one PSA NM 7 Ray Boone, two EX-MT 6 cards (Bill Goodman and Johnny Sain) and one PSA EX 5 Ferris Fain.
The combined value of the individual cards was worth a fraction of the same group left alone in its unopened state, but the exhilaration of the opening remained the same. That joy is the X factor of unopened in a nutshell.
One of the more intriguing aspects of the unopened market is that the population decreases over time. While it’s true that discoveries can add to the existing number of known examples, a percentage of the population gets opened each year. This is the opposite of the graded card market, where the population has only one way to go – up. With the abundance of unopened breaking/ripping across various social media platforms, this trend has as much momentum as ever.
Of course, credible third-party authentication services are critical for collectors here, like every other hobby segment where present and relevant. The reputation and brand behind those services ultimately increase peace of mind and resale value when the time comes.
For those interested in exploring unopened collecting, we present a hobby guide containing the key factors that can impact value and improve your overall experience.
If you grew up collecting in the 1970s, the images of unopened packs and boxes from the period can instantaneously trigger nostalgia.
Pay Attention to the Generational Cycle
The same generational cycle that affects other collectibles can also give eras of unopened product an extra boost. For example, I was born in 1971 and started collecting very young. I have a particular affinity for the sets of the 1970s because those are the cards I remember collecting in my early years. They were the packs I opened as a kid and the cards I saw in showcases at the baseball card shops my parents took me to. That age of cards is nostalgic not only for me but for every child who was active at that time.
Furthermore, there is a noticeable difference in scarcity between unopened from the 1970s and 1980s. Once the first hobby boom took place in the 1980s, what was never designed to stay unopened was suddenly becoming fashionable to keep unopened, at least to an extent. Some collectors started to stash unopened products away in greater numbers than seen prior to the industry explosion. This is an important pre-and-post time to remember.
Like many collectors, I started moving back in history to collect cards made long before I was born as I gained experience. I fell in love with vintage; however, the cards made during my youth fall into a special category. The memories of seeing and handling those specific cards are “baked” in a way that elevates them to an entirely different level of sentiment. Now, at 52 years of age and as long as I am breathing oxygen, those cards will remain the ultimate form of nostalgia for me.
The same is true for countless others. Those feelings are set in stone at a time when we were most impressionable, and they stay with us for life.
Key takeaway: Certain periods of unopened products get an extra boost from the memories shared by different generations during different phases of their life.
As most would expect, popular issues such as 1961 Fleer Basketball, 1979 O-Pee-Chee Hockey and 1986 Fleer Basketball enjoy a heightened level of demand in the unopened world.
The Popularity of the Underlying Card Issue Is Usually Paramount
While it’s true that attributes such as scarcity can drive collector demand, just like they can in other categories, the appeal of the underlying card issue is a more powerful force when it comes to unopened market value. The staple sets from various decades enjoy an immense following, and if those same issues contain significant rookie cards, the level of demand is heightened even more. Why? Those ultra-attractive cards might be nestled inside. The mere potential is the only thing required to send collectors into a frenzy.
There are some exceptions where an elusive pack or box from a less-than-iconic issue can sell for startling premiums, which is usually the result of collectors trying to complete entire unopened runs, but the general rule remains. The more popular the set, the more attention the unopened version of that set receives. Is there a Mantle, Wilt, Gretzky, Jordan or Brady waiting to be set free? That hope, in a nutshell, plays a massive role in the unopened market dynamic.
This principle is perhaps the most obvious one in this guide, but the size of the price gap between the elite and everything else can surprise some hobbyists.
Key takeaway: The aura of the entire set or specific cards within it almost always separates certain unopened items from the rest of the pack.
The 1962 Topps baseball set is desirable on its merit, as are unopened packs and boxes from the issue. Still, the appeal of a box from the first series rises to another level since that specific run is loaded with alluring cards.
If Relevant, the Card Series Can Be Crucial
This point is the logical sequel to the one that came before it. If the underlying popularity of the card issue is essential, then you’d better believe the series can be if the set was distributed in such a manner. Many vintage sets were issued by series, and some unopened products are limited to a specific series. This means that some packs and boxes only have the potential for some cards in the set, and the ones connected to highly desirable cards have a distinct advantage over others.
That said, there are cases where unopened products from a specific series are far more difficult to find than others, and the scarcity factor doesn’t go unnoticed by experienced collectors. Population figures can be impactful but are not nearly as impactful as the series. To reiterate, most unopened collectors of vintage material keep the packs and boxes in sealed form, but it doesn’t matter. What could lurk inside does. Remember that this principle is only relevant where the series is relevant and precise.
The possibilities trump an unopened collectible’s availability, or lack thereof, if the series might spawn a superstar.
Key takeaway: Even if a collector never intends on opening, the allure of the possible contents inside the specific series helps drive demand.
The vibrant colors and graphics that appear on the exterior of some unopened collectibles can fuel demand, especially in the case of full boxes that are often used as display pieces.
Condition and Eye Appeal
The combination of a box or pack’s state of preservation and the graphics on the outside of the package drives attraction. There are instances where scarcity will override eye appeal, as some unopened treasures are unicorns in their category. As the saying goes, beggars can’t be choosers in those cases. While true, and since most vintage treasures are often kept intact for display, the strength of the visual attributes can be highly impactful, from its color to its content.
Collectors will notice that some pack and box designs are aesthetically impressive, yet others are, quite frankly, lackluster in appearance. Additionally, some exterior packaging features images or artwork related to star players. As a result, those items become relevant to player-centric collectors, even if they are not necessarily focused on unopened material. It can open the door to more potential buyers.
Interestingly, as much as collectors value condition, this facet of the unopened market hasn’t had its day yet. In other words, as time passes, I anticipate more emphasis will be placed on eye appeal and condition, especially regarding full vintage boxes. Those boxes are least likely to be opened, so their value as display pieces should continue to take center stage.
Key takeaway: The visuals showcased on the packaging and its condition can enhance the appeal of unopened treasures.
Knowing that a box was certified upon its removal from a sealed case and has never been searched is, and will continue to be, a highly prized unopened state.
The Importance of FASC
For those unfamiliar with the acronym, FASC stands for “From A Sealed Case.” This label is used by some third-party services, which guarantees the boxes themselves have not been previously opened and the packs within have not been searched from the outside for sequence where applicable. If card sequence is relevant, as it can be for products such as cello and rack packs, that means knowledgeable unopened collectors can ascertain what cards might lie inside the packs without opening them.
With FASC, the boxes are removed from an intact case by representatives of the services. Essentially, it further assures that the unopened treasure remains in its most original state possible.
Unfortunately, this form of certification has not been around for long, and the further you go back in time, the harder it is to find unopened products with this designation since sealed vintage cases are so elusive. That said, when you find ones certified as FASC, a price premium is warranted and often generated. Over time, this premium is likely to increase as more collectors appreciate its importance. So, why is FASC so important?
While these are not apples-to-apples comparisons, think of it this way. There is autograph authentication, and then there is the type of authentication that occurs when the service witnesses the signing. There is jersey authentication, and then there are those jerseys that can be definitively photo-matched to specific dates.
FASC is the unopened market’s version of “next-level” certification, the type that removes all doubt. Even though it applies to various product types, it is even more relevant to cello, rack and vending boxes, where the contents (or a portion thereof) sit in plain sight.
Key takeaway: The more the unopened market matures, the more boxes with the FASC designation will be prized.
In Many Cases, Breaking = Bad in Vintage, But…
Let me begin by saying far more than not, I would advise against breaking/ripping vintage, or even semi-vintage, material since the chance of pulling something spectacular is usually low. That temptation can be, however, overwhelming. Moreover, there are always exceptions to the general rule. Depending on the issue and the type of unopened product, some forms are more likely to produce positive results.
So, without further ado, here is the unopened hierarchy – the list of product types more likely to bear gradable fruit than the ones ranked below it.
- Vending: The good news is that the cards are free of the sometimes-constricting packaging included in other product types. The bad news is that if a box contains cards with poor centering or another noticeable manufacturing flaw, that pattern can impact the whole run found inside. It can be feast or famine with vending.
- Rack: This unopened product provides a nice balance between vending and cello/wax since these packs protect the cards without too much pressure exerted on the cards inside. They are also free of any wax or gum. Racks are usually more challenging to find than the other forms of unopened as they were almost always produced in far lower quantities.
- Cello: The clear advantage that cellos possess over wax is that they do not have to contend with, you guessed it, wax, even though gum often lurks somewhere in the middle of the card stack. They are wrapped more tightly than racks, but they can still produce very nice cards, assuming they are not affected by the often unavoidable manufacturing flaws.
- Wax: While wax might be at the bottom of these rankings, the opposite is true if left alone. If there is zero intent to open them, this is by far the most popular form in unopened pack collecting due to the outstanding graphics often showcased on the packaging. Wax is what most of us remember seeing at the store. It is familiar; much more than cellos and racks, to those who have logged enough collector miles. In addition, many of the finest cards ever discovered or graded by third-party services originated from this unopened vehicle. It might contain the most potential obstacles versus the rest of the pack (no pun intended), but the potential for a stunning specimen still lurks within.
Keep in mind that there are exceptions to the hierarchy above, but this general guide is hopefully helpful to unopened thrill seekers who decide to go break or go home.
Key takeaway: If you are willing to take the risk, you must set reasonable breaking/ripping expectations based on the unopened vehicle type.
Unopened items can act as complements to other collectibles or act as the foundation itself. There are many layers to unopened collecting, some of which weren’t covered earlier in this guide. For example, the impact of star cards showing on the top or bottom of different pack types should not be underestimated. Valuation in these situations is not an exact science, but there is no question that collectors have long been willing to pay premiums for packs when big names can be confirmed at either end.
Of course, the type of pack and the obstacles contained within can either enhance or diminish the impact of the star showing. This is only one of the many fascinating aspects of the unopened market, which can captivate collectors of all types. From those drawn to extreme scarcity or mystery, to others moved by engrained nostalgia or a specific player connection, this collectible category has something for everyone. Unopened is a proverbial hobby onion – one filled with layers of nuance, and too many to cover here in this introductory guide.
Whether you are new to the unopened world or have already dabbled in this blossoming space, we hope this guide proves helpful on your collecting journey.
JOE ORLANDO is Executive Vice President of Sports at Heritage Auctions. He can be reached at JoeO@HA.com or 214.409.1799.